Key trends highlighted in the market as of Q2 2025
Softening market conditions persist
Market conditions continued to soften in Q2 2025, with premiums across all account sizes rising by an average of 3.7%, down from 4.2% in Q1 2025. This softening was driven by large accounts which experienced the most notable moderation, increasing only 2.9%, compared to 5.3% in Q1— a 45% drop — while small and medium accounts actually saw minimal upticks to 4.2% and 4.0% from 3.6% and 3.7%, respectively. Pricing moderation reflects heightened carrier competition and capacity, particularly in large account segments. However, while carriers are starting to aggressively pursue some large accounts, certain risks continue to face upward pricing pressure. That said, the overall trend remains toward a more competitive marketplace, marking the 31st consecutive quarter of premium increases, though at a slowing pace.
Large accounts saw a significant drop in rate increases (5.3% in Q1 2025)
Small accounts saw a moderate uptick in rate increases (3.6% in Q1 2025)
The commercial insurance market is experiencing a moderation in premium growth, with average increases declining to 4.2% in Q1 2025, driven by softening in property and some other lines, although litigation pressures continue to drive up rates in commercial auto and umbrella coverage.
What to watch for next:
Capacity Rotation:
More carriers are leaning back into larger accounts and property layers; expect sharper competition on mid/high excess in casualty, but continued firmness on primaries.
Reinsurance & ILS:
If treaty relief and ILS inflows hold through hurricane season, property competition should persist into Q3/Q4.
Verdict-driven casualty severity:
Keep an eye on jurisdictions and venues driving outsized awards; verdict trends can change program structure needs quickly.
